Idan aka yi la'akari da yanayin masana'antar kwali a shekarar 2023 daga matsayin ci gaban manyan kamfanonin marufi na Turai

Idan aka yi la'akari da yanayin masana'antar kwali a shekarar 2023 daga matsayin ci gaban manyan kamfanonin marufi na Turai
A wannan shekarar, manyan kamfanonin shirya kwalaye a Turai sun ci gaba da samun riba mai yawa a ƙarƙashin yanayin da ke taɓarɓarewa, amma har yaushe nasarar da suka samu za ta iya ɗaukar lokaci mai tsawo? Gabaɗaya, shekarar 2022 za ta zama shekara mai wahala ga manyan kamfanonin shirya kwalaye. Tare da hauhawar farashin makamashi da farashin aiki, manyan kamfanonin Turai, ciki har da Smurf Cappa Group da Desma Group, suma suna aiki tuƙuru don magance matsalar farashin takarda.Akwatin takarda
A cewar masu sharhi na Jeffries, tun daga shekarar 2020, a matsayin muhimmin bangare na samar da takardar marufi, farashin kwali da aka sake yin amfani da shi a Turai ya ninka kusan ninki biyu. Bugu da ƙari, farashin kwali na asali da aka yi kai tsaye daga katako maimakon kwali da aka sake yin amfani da shi yana bin irin wannan yanayin ci gaba. A lokaci guda, masu sayayya da ke da hankali kan farashi suna rage kashe kuɗin da suke yi akan layi, wanda hakan ke rage buƙatar kwali. Jakar takarda
Shekarun da COVID-19 ya kawo masu kyau, kamar oda da ke aiki a cikakken iko, ƙarancin wadatar kwali, da hauhawar farashin hannun jari na manyan kamfanonin marufi, duk sun ƙare. Duk da haka, duk da haka, aikin waɗannan kamfanoni ya fi kyau fiye da kowane lokaci. Smurfit Cappa kwanan nan ya ba da rahoton cewa EBITDA ɗinsa ya karu da kashi 43% daga ƙarshen Janairu zuwa Satumba, yayin da kuɗin shiga na aiki shi ma ya ƙaru da kashi ɗaya bisa uku. Wannan yana nufin cewa duk da cewa har yanzu akwai kwata na lokaci kafin ƙarshen 2022, kudaden shiga da ribar kuɗi a 2022 sun wuce matakin kafin annobar COVID-19.
A halin yanzu, Desma, babban kamfanin marufi na kwalta a Burtaniya, ya ɗaga hasashensa na shekara-shekara tun daga ranar 30 ga Afrilu, 2023, yana mai cewa ribar aiki da aka daidaita a rabin farko na shekara ya kamata ta kasance aƙalla fam miliyan 400, idan aka kwatanta da fam miliyan 351 a shekarar 2019. Mengdi, wani babban kamfanin marufi, ya ƙara ribar ribarsa ta asali da maki 3 cikin ɗari kuma ya ninka ribar da ya samu a rabin farko na wannan shekarar, kodayake har yanzu yana da kasuwancin Rasha a cikin mawuyacin hali saboda matsalolin da ba a warware su ba.Akwatin hula
Bayanan sabunta yarjejeniyar ciniki ta Desma a watan Oktoba kaɗan ne, amma ta ambaci cewa "yawan kwalayen da aka yi da corrugated iri ɗaya ya ɗan yi ƙasa". Hakazalika, ƙaruwar Smurf Cappa ba sakamakon sayar da ƙarin kwalaye ba ne - tallace-tallacen kwalayen da aka yi da corrugated ya kasance ba su da yawa a cikin watanni tara na farko na 2022, har ma ya faɗi da kashi 3% a kwata na uku. Akasin haka, waɗannan manyan kamfanoni suna ƙara ribar su ta hanyar ƙara farashin kayayyakinsu.Akwatin hular ƙwallon baseball
Bugu da ƙari, da alama yawan kuɗin shiga bai inganta ba. A taron taron rahotannin kuɗi na wannan watan, Tony Smurf, Shugaba na Smurf Cappa, ya ce: "Yawan ciniki a kwata na huɗu yayi kama da abin da muka gani a kwata na uku. Yawancin lokaci muna sa ran murmurewa a Kirsimeti. Tabbas, ina tsammanin wasu kasuwanni kamar Birtaniya da Jamus sun yi aiki ba daidai ba a cikin watanni biyu ko uku da suka gabata." Akwatin Scarf
Wannan ya haifar da tambaya: Me zai faru da masana'antar akwatin kwali a shekarar 2023? Idan kasuwa da buƙatun masu amfani na marufi na kwali suka fara daidaitawa, shin masana'antun marufi na kwali za su iya ci gaba da ƙara farashi don samun riba mai yawa? Ganin wahalar asalin macro da raunin jigilar kwali da aka ruwaito a Amurka, masu sharhi sun gamsu da sabunta Smurf Cappa. A lokaci guda, Smurfikapa ya jaddada cewa "kwatancen da ke tsakanin ƙungiyar da bara yana da ƙarfi sosai, kuma koyaushe muna ganin cewa wannan matakin ba zai dore ba". Akwatin kyautar Kirsimeti
Duk da haka, masu zuba jari suna da shakku sosai. Farashin hannun jarin Smurf Cappa ya yi ƙasa da kashi 25% fiye da kololuwar annobar, kuma farashin hannun jarin Desma ya faɗi da kashi 31%. Wanene ya yi daidai? Nasarar ba wai kawai ta dogara ne akan tallace-tallacen kwali da kwali ba. Masu sharhi na Jeffries sun yi hasashen cewa saboda ƙarancin buƙatar kwali, farashin kwali da aka sake yin amfani da shi zai faɗi, amma sun kuma jaddada cewa farashin takarda da makamashin da aka ɓata suma suna raguwa, domin hakan yana nufin cewa farashin samar da marufi yana raguwa.
"A ra'ayinmu, abin da ake yawan mantawa da shi shi ne cewa ƙarancin farashi na iya yin babban tasiri ga samun kuɗi. A ƙarshe, ga masu kera akwatunan kwali, fa'idodin rage farashi za su bayyana kafin duk wani yuwuwar ƙarancin farashin kwali, wanda ya fi ƙarfi a cikin tsarin raguwar farashi (ragewa na watanni 3-6). Gabaɗaya, raguwar riba daga ƙarancin farashi yana raguwa kaɗan ta hanyar hauhawar farashin riba." in ji masu sharhi na Jeffries. Akwatin tufafi
A lokaci guda kuma, matsalar buƙata ba ta da sauƙi. Duk da cewa kasuwancin e-commerce da raguwar tattalin arziki sun haifar da wata barazana ga aikin kamfanonin marufi na roba, mafi yawan tallace-tallace na waɗannan ƙungiyoyi galibi suna faruwa ne a wasu kasuwanci. A Desma, kusan kashi 80% na kuɗin shiga yana fitowa ne daga kayan masarufi masu saurin tafiya (FMCG), waɗanda galibi samfuran da ake sayarwa a manyan kantuna ne. Kimanin kashi 70% na marufin kwali na Smurf Cappa ana isar da shi ga abokan cinikin FMCG. Tare da haɓaka kasuwar ƙarshen zamani, wannan ya kamata ya zama mai sassauƙa. Desma ta lura da kyakkyawan ci gaba a cikin maye gurbin filastik da sauran fannoni.
Saboda haka, duk da sauyin da ake samu a buƙata, da wuya ya faɗi ƙasa da wani matsayi - musamman idan aka yi la'akari da dawowar abokan ciniki na masana'antu waɗanda annobar COVID-19 ta shafa. Wannan yana samun goyon baya daga aikin MacFarlane (MACF) na baya-bayan nan, wanda ya nuna cewa farfadowar abokan ciniki a masana'antar jiragen sama, injiniyanci da otal-otal ya rage tasirin raguwar siyayya ta yanar gizo, kuma kudaden shigar kamfanin ya karu da kashi 14% a cikin watanni shida na farko na 2022. akwatin isar da abincin dabbobi.
Masu yin kwali a cikin gida suma suna amfani da annobar don inganta lissafin ma'aunin su. Tony Smoffey, Shugaba na Smoffey Kappa, ya jaddada cewa tsarin jarin kamfaninsa yana "cikin mafi kyawun yanayi a tarihinmu", kuma ribar bashi/kafin amortization ta ragu da ƙasa da sau 1.4. Miles Roberts, Shugaba na Desma, ya amince da wannan a watan Satumba, yana mai cewa rabon riba na bashi/kafin amortization na ƙungiyar ya ragu zuwa sau 1.6, "wanda shine ɗayan mafi ƙarancin rabo a cikin shekaru da yawa".akwatin jigilar kaya
Duk waɗannan suna nufin cewa wasu masu sharhi suna ganin cewa kasuwa ta yi mummunan martani, musamman a yanayin masu tattara bayanai na FTSE 100, waɗanda farashinsu ya faɗi da kashi 20% daga ribar da ake tsammani kafin amortization. Tabbas ƙimar su tana da kyau. Rabon P/E na Desma na gaba shine 8.7 kawai, yayin da matsakaicin shekaru biyar shine 11.1, yayin da rabon P/E na gaba na Smurfikapa shine 10.4, kuma matsakaicin shekaru biyar shine 12.3. A mafi yawan lokuta, ya dogara ne akan ko kamfanin zai iya shawo kan masu zuba jari cewa za su iya ci gaba da samun aiki mai ban mamaki a 2023.akwatin jigilar wasiƙa