Duban yanayin masana'antar kwali a cikin 2023 daga matsayin ci gaba na manyan gwanayen marufi na Turai

Duban yanayin masana'antar kwali a cikin 2023 daga matsayin ci gaba na manyan gwanayen marufi na Turai
A wannan shekara, gungun gwanayen kwali a Turai sun ci gaba da samun riba mai yawa a ƙarƙashin tabarbarewar yanayin, amma har yaushe nasararsu za ta kasance? Gabaɗaya, 2022 zai zama shekara mai wahala ga gwanayen kwalin kwali. Tare da hauhawar farashin makamashi da farashin aiki, manyan kamfanonin Turai, ciki har da Smurf Cappa Group da Desma Group, suma suna aiki tuƙuru don magance matsalar farashin takarda.Akwatin takarda
A cewar manazarta Jeffries, tun daga shekarar 2020, a matsayin muhimmin bangare na samar da takarda, farashin kwali da aka sake sarrafa a Turai ya kusan ninki biyu. Bugu da kari, farashin allo na asali da aka yi kai tsaye daga gundumomi maimakon kwalayen da aka sake fa'ida suna bin irin wannan yanayin ci gaba. A lokaci guda kuma, masu amfani da tsadar kayayyaki suna rage kashe kuɗin da suke kashewa ta yanar gizo, wanda hakan ke rage buƙatar kwali. Jakar takarda
Shekaru masu ɗaukaka da COVID-19 ya kawo, kamar umarni da ke gudana da cikakken ƙarfi, ƙarancin katun, da hauhawar farashin hannun jari na gwanayen marufi, duk sun ƙare. Duk da haka, duk da haka, ayyukan waɗannan kamfanoni sun fi kyau fiye da kowane lokaci. Smurfit Cappa kwanan nan ya ba da rahoton cewa EBITDA ɗin sa ya karu da kashi 43 cikin ɗari daga ƙarshen Janairu zuwa Satumba, yayin da kuɗin aikin sa ya karu da kashi uku. Wannan yana nufin cewa ko da yake har yanzu akwai kwata na lokaci kafin ƙarshen 2022, kudaden shiga da ribar tsabar kuɗi a cikin 2022 sun zarce matakin kafin barkewar COVID-19.
A halin da ake ciki kuma, Desma, babban kamfani na manyan marufi a Burtaniya, ya haɓaka hasashensa na shekara-shekara tun daga ranar 30 ga Afrilu, 2023, yana mai cewa ribar da aka daidaita a farkon rabin shekara ya kamata ta kasance aƙalla fam miliyan 400, idan aka kwatanta da fam miliyan 351 a shekarar 2019. Mengdi, wani babban ɗimbin marufi, ya ƙaru fiye da ribar da ya samu a farkon rabin shekara. rabin wannan shekara, ko da yake har yanzu yana da kasuwancin Rasha a cikin yanayi mafi wuya saboda matsalolin da ba a warware ba.Akwatin hula
Cikakkun bayanai na sabunta ma'amalar Desma a watan Oktoba kaɗan ne, amma an ambata cewa "juyawar kwalayen kwalayen ya ɗan yi ƙasa kaɗan". Hakazalika, haɓaka mai ƙarfi na Smurf Cappa ba shine sakamakon siyar da ƙarin kwali ba - tallace-tallacen kwali na kwali ya kasance daidai a cikin watanni tara na farko na 2022, har ma ya faɗi da 3% a cikin kwata na uku. Sabanin haka, wadannan ’yan kato da gora suna kara samun riba ta hanyar kara farashin kayayyakinsu.Akwatin hular kwando
Bugu da kari, juzu'i bai inganta ba. Game da kiran taron rahoton kuɗi na wannan watan, Tony Smurf, Shugaba na Smurf Cappa, ya ce: "Ƙarfin ciniki a cikin kwata na huɗu ya yi kama da abin da muka gani a cikin kwata na uku. Yawancin lokaci muna sa ran murmurewa a Kirsimeti. Tabbas, ina tsammanin wasu kasuwanni irin su Birtaniya da Jamus sun yi aiki mai mahimmanci a cikin watanni biyu ko uku da suka gabata." Akwatin gyale
Wannan yana haifar da tambaya: Menene zai faru da masana'antar akwatuna a cikin 2023? Idan kasuwa da buƙatun mabukaci na marufi ya fara daidaitawa, shin masana'antun sarrafa kayan kwalliya za su iya ci gaba da ƙara farashin don samun riba mai yawa? Dangane da mawuyacin yanayin macro da raunin kwali da aka ruwaito a cikin Amurka, manazarta sun gamsu da sabuntawar Smurf Cappa. A sa'i daya kuma, Smurfikapa ya jaddada cewa "kwatancen da ke tsakanin kungiyar da shekarar da ta gabata yana da karfi sosai, kuma a ko da yaushe muna yin imanin cewa wannan mataki ne mai dorewa". Akwatin kyautar Kirsimeti
Duk da haka, masu zuba jari suna da shakku sosai. Farashin hannun jarin Smurf Cappa ya ragu da kashi 25% idan aka kwatanta da kololuwar annobar, kuma farashin hannun jarin Desma ya fadi da kashi 31%. Wanene mai gaskiya? Nasarar ya dogara ba kawai akan kwali da siyar da kwali ba. Manazarta Jeffries sun yi hasashen cewa idan aka yi la'akari da raunin macro, farashin kwali da aka sake yin fa'ida zai ragu, amma kuma sun jaddada cewa kudin da ake amfani da su na sharar fakitin da makamashi ma yana raguwa, domin hakan na nufin farashin kayan da ake samarwa ya ragu.
"A ganinmu, abin da ake mantawa da shi sau da yawa shi ne cewa ƙananan farashi na iya yin tasiri mai yawa a kan samun kudin shiga. A ƙarshe, ga masu sana'a na katako, amfanin rage farashin zai bayyana a gaban duk wani yuwuwar rage farashin kwali, wanda ya fi danko a cikin tsarin raguwa (lalata watanni 3-6) Gabaɗaya, samun kuɗin da ake samu daga ƙananan farashin yana da wani ɓangare na raguwa ta hanyar samun kudin shiga." Jeffries manazarta sun ce. Akwatin tufafi
Har ila yau, matsalar buƙatu ita kanta ba ta kasance mai sauƙi ba. Duk da cewa kasuwancin e-commerce da raguwar raguwar sun haifar da wata barazana ga ayyukan kamfanoni masu sarrafa kaya, kaso mafi girma na tallace-tallace na waɗannan ƙungiyoyi galibi yana cikin wasu kasuwancin. A cikin Desma, kusan kashi 80% na kudaden shiga suna zuwa ne daga kayan masarufi masu saurin tafiya (FMCG), waɗanda galibi samfuran da ake siyarwa a manyan kantuna. Kimanin kashi 70% na buhunan katun na Smurf Cappa ana bayarwa ga abokan cinikin FMCG. Tare da haɓaka kasuwar tasha, wannan yakamata ya zama mai sassauƙa. Desma ya lura da kyakkyawan girma a cikin maye gurbin filastik da sauran filayen.
Don haka, duk da sauye-sauyen da ake samu, ba zai yuwu a faɗi ƙasa da wani matsayi ba - musamman idan aka yi la'akari da dawowar abokan cinikin masana'antu waɗanda cutar ta COVID-19 ta shafa. Wannan yana goyan bayan aikin MacFarlane (MACF) na baya-bayan nan, wanda ya nuna cewa dawo da abokan ciniki a cikin jirgin sama, injiniyanci da masana'antar otal suna daidaita tasirin raguwar kasuwancin kan layi, kuma kudaden shiga na kamfanin ya karu da 14% a farkon watanni shida na 2022. Akwatin isar da abinci na dabbobi.
Masu fakitin tarkace kuma suna amfani da cutar don inganta ma'auni. Tony Smoffey, Shugaba na Smoffey Kappa, ya jaddada cewa tsarin babban kamfani nasa yana "a cikin mafi kyawun yanayi a tarihinmu", kuma ribar bashi / pre amortization da yawa bai wuce sau 1.4 ba. Miles Roberts, Shugaba na Desma, ya amince da wannan a watan Satumba, yana mai cewa yawan riba / ribar da aka samu na rukunin ya ragu zuwa sau 1.6, "wanda shine ɗayan mafi ƙasƙanci a cikin shekaru da yawa".akwatin jigilar kaya
Duk waɗannan tare suna nufin cewa wasu manazarta sun yi imanin cewa kasuwa ta yi fushi, musamman a cikin yanayin FTSE 100 index packers, waɗanda farashinsu ya faɗi kusan kashi 20% daga ribar da ake sa ran gabaɗaya kafin amortization. Tabbas kimar su yana da kyau. Matsakaicin P/E na gaba na Desma shine kawai 8.7, yayin da matsakaicin shekaru biyar shine 11.1, yayin da rabon P/E na gaba na Smurfikapa shine 10.4, kuma matsakaicin shekaru biyar shine 12.3. Yawanci, ya dogara da ko kamfanin zai iya shawo kan masu zuba jari cewa za su iya ci gaba da samun abin mamaki a cikin 2023.akwatin jigilar kaya